Good Morning Guest2005, Access Level: Guest
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Beginner's Guide on How to Find Value
The TAB minimum commission
Many Australian punters bet with the
three Totaliser's based in QLD, NSW and VIC. These Totalisers (or TABs) have vast
amount of outlets, phone operators and internet services. These services make TAB's a
convenient operation to use. However, for this convenience, there are large
overheads - high shop leases, technology and infrastructure, air
conditioning, staff and wads of paper! Lets not forget corporate management
salaries and shareholders! High costs and overheads require higher margins to
operate, these higher margins reflect in the higher take on each race (e.g. poor odds).
So how much take is there? UNiTAB for example, can retain a commission up to 16%, that's by legislation (excluding exotic betting).
But it doesn't stop there. Rounding down fractions are allowed.
'Rounding down' provides TABs with a significantly higher advantage than one might
initially think (maybe even the legislation!).
On checking the UNiTAB odds over many years, the commission, on
average, is well above
18%, rounding therefore contributes more than 2% more than what legislation allows in general. This equates to 12.5% more in profits to the TAB - a pretty
sneaky way to increase revenue.
We are not suggesting TABs as profiteers, they are just covering their costs for the
"convenience" - so now you know at what cost to you.
On a race by race basis, the commissions are even higher when
the favourites are short priced. Lets look at one such race - IPSWICH Race 02, 20 August 2009.
UNiTAB odds at the jump were:-
| 1 |
AFRICAN LION |
$1.20 |
| 2 |
LISTEN SON |
$6.10 |
| 3 |
WHATZAHMATA |
$12.10 |
| 4 |
FIRST FACE |
$107.10 |
| 5 |
HOT SHOT HENRY |
$63.80 |
| 6 |
OUR GREATMATE KATE |
$13.80 |
| 7 |
SILVER ASSASSIN |
$53.00 |
| 8 |
TWOGUNDAN |
$33.80 |
| TAB Framed Market:- |
122.6% |
The effect of 'rounding down'
In this example, the Framed Market for
UNiTAB was 122.6%, or their commission was 22.6% (for STAB it was 19.6% and NSW TAB 20.9%). If the Favourite alone was
'rounded up' to $1.30 instead of 'rounded down' to $1.20, the Framed Market
would have been 116.2% or a commission of 16.2%. This
example illustrates the additional gains 'rounding down' gives a TAB.
Believe it or not, these extreme commissions are even worse than poker machines.
The "worst of the worst" poker machines only take 17.7%
commission (or a Framed Market of 117.7%, normally quoted as 85% return). Good
venues only take 5-10% or a Framed Market of 105 - 110%. Yes, venues have a choice on how much they pay back! The message here is not to
change your punting habits to pokies ;-) but to show how having the convenience of a TAB really chews up your prifits.
Betting Exchange Odds
Lets consider a popular betting exchange
and the final back and lay odds for the same
race above. It's important to note that these odds
are unmatched, that means, 'unwanted' odds for the back and lay. The true matched odds
are unascertainable as these are never displayed, however, they exist somewhere
between the the back and lay odds. For calculation sake, we will use the average
between them and the Framed Market of 101.8%.
| 1 |
AFRICAN LION |
$1.30 |
$1.32 |
| 2 |
LISTEN SON |
$6.00 |
$6.20 |
| 3 |
WHATZAHMATA |
$27.00 |
$30.00 |
| 4 |
FIRST FACE |
$120.00 |
$450.00 |
| 5 |
HOT SHOT HENRY |
$80.00 |
$210.00 |
| 6 |
OUR GREATMATE KATE |
$40.00 |
$55.00 |
| 7 |
SILVER ASSASSIN |
$120.00 |
$180.00 |
| 8 |
TWOGUNDAN |
$65.00 |
$100.00 |
| B/E Framed Market:- |
104.3% |
99.3% |
Your Target Market
In our opinion, you should not take the
offered back price but target your market near 100%. Seldom
does a match fail at 100%, 30 seconds before jump time. Part of our service is
to show you the 100% price, please check your 'User Settings' and select 'Calculated
100% betting mark for win odds'. This is the sort of odds that will be
displayed to a 100% market:
UPDATE: Consider "SP" odds on the betting exchange, these odds are set to a 100% market when the race jumps, No effort is required on your part to get the 100% market - however it is more difficult to dutch bet these odds, but you can nominate a match price if that helps.
| 1 |
AFRICAN LION |
$1.36 |
| 2 |
LISTEN SON |
$6.00 |
| 3 |
WHATZAHMATA |
$28.00 |
| 4 |
FIRST FACE |
$125.00 |
| 5 |
HOT SHOT HENRY |
$85.00 |
| 6 |
OUR GREATMATE KATE |
$42.00 |
| 7 |
SILVER ASSASSIN |
$130.00 |
| 8 |
TWOGUNDAN |
$70.00 |
| Your Framed Market:- |
100.3% |
The betting exchange does not allow
fractions for odds over $10, for example, odds between $30 - $50 need to be in
increments of 2. This makes it difficult to get the market framed at exactly
100%. In the example above, this restriction means the market can only be
framed at 100.3% - close enough.
Betting Exchange commission
The highest commission a punter will pay on a betting exchange
is around 4.9% commission, it could be as low as 2% (depending on turnover).
UPDATE: It can be as high as 6.5% on some Australian races, they races should be avoided.
This is considerably less
than the TAB's, because the overheads are so much less. Adding to this
advantage, the betting exchange works commission
on profits per race, not return per horse. This is an important
factor. For example, using the race above, with a Betting Exchange, if the favourite had won, for
$100,
the return would have been $136 or a profit of $36, less 4.9% commission or
about $34.25. The TAB however only returned $120.00 or a profit of $20.
Another important factor is the "profits only per race". This means
that you only pay commissions on the NET profit. This is a huge advantage if you
punt more than one horse per race. If you had placed $100 each on the first two listed
horses and assume
the favourite had won, the TAB would have paid their actual tote price of $120 -
you are down $80 from your outlay of 2x$100. However, with the betting exchange, since you made a
loss in the race, there is NO COMMISSION paid. $136 less your loss of 2x$100
means you are only down $64.
This might not sound much of an advantage, but I'm sure you would prefer to have
an extra $16 in your wallet after the race.
Dutch Betting
As the example above shows, a $100 bet on
the top two
horses result in a loss, even though one wins. However, If you had Dutch bet these horses, then you
could still have shown a profit. At the end of the day, we want profits,
not less losses! A simple calculation is to divide a fixed return amount by
the odds. Lets assume the target is $100 per horse per race for the day. On the
Favourite at $1.36 you would place a bet of $73.53 and on the second horse
$16.67. This makes a total bet of $90.20. Regardless which one wins, the return
will be $100 for your total bet of $90.20 or a small profit of $9.80 (less commission on the
$9.80). As mentioned above, flat betting would have resulted in either two ways, a win of $36 or a loss of $64 - which approach is better? ..... Lowering your risk/exposure is usually considered a better position.
The point is, a
profit may be possible if the bets are proportioned correctly. There are three Dutch betting calculations that
can be used. Go to your 'User Settings' and turn on 'Dutch Betting' to check it
out.
Selection Process
Ok, so you are now betting with a betting exchange, working your market at 100% and dutch betting - well done! However,
even with the smallest commission charges, dutch betting in a 100% market will
eventually lose you money because of the commission loss. If you can determine a selection process that only
slightly improves your winning chances in a 100% market, you
are set to profit over time. With large bets, even the smallest profit
percentages will provide you with a sizeable return over time. With large bets,
your betting exchange commission also drops to a lower level (from 4.9% to
2%).
The better the selection process,
the higher the profits. Your next move should be to determine a selection
process that improves your position. You've come to the right place - our website should be able to help here! Review our information per race and see how you can increase your strike rate. Make sure you keep a log of your selections each day with the average Betting Exchange odds and once you find a return of around 110%, you are set.
How much should my Profit on Turnover be?
Good question, I see many selection processes offering a turnover profit of 20% or more, even insanely 100%+ in some cases! Apart from the fact that these turnovers are not substanable, you don't need to focus on such high levels to profit. Lets assume you have kept your log book running and have found your MAXIMUM runs of outs is 20 races in a row (this should be determined over 1000's of races). Therefore it makes sence your Bank should be 20 times your intended bet size (or 50 times if you use the Bank suggestion below). You have worked out your selection process provides a 10% profit on turnover. Calculate it this way, if you flat bet say $10 per race, you need a bank of $200. So your investment is $200 - that's what you stand to lose. If you bet $10 per race on say 300 races per week and 52 weeks per year, your turnover is in excess of $150,000. A 10% profit on turnover would be $15,000. So for a $200 investment, you're making $15,000 or 7,500% return. That's why a small profit on turnover can still be very attractive. Of course commissions need to be taken out etc, but that can't be determined as it is based on profit, not return and wins not losses.
Betting BOTS
Working out the 100% (or better) market
prices for multiple selections and then calculating the Dutch Betting per horse
all within a split second before jump time, then placing these bets can be a
daunting task for mere mortal humans! We use our own BOT to do this and it works in conjunction
with our website and information. If you have a proven selection process that
works with our information, we would consider customising a BOT for
you. Please contact us for further information. Otherwise, there are many BOTS
available on the internet, just Google 'betting bots'.
The Bank
Always ensure your Bank is large enough to
cover your anticipated worst number of losses in a row. Even favourite punters have
seen race meetings when favourites have missed the line all day. Normally a
figure of 2% of your bank is an acceptable target. If you bet on several horses
per race, your strike rate will be much higher, so a slightly higher target
could be acceptable.
Conclusion
Betting Exchanges offer better odds over the
TAB's. Don't take the back odds offered, try to frame your market to at least
100%. Betting on more than one horse for the win increases your strike rate and
you should consider Dutch Betting to proportion your risk. Decide on a selection process that
shows some potential and automate your betting strategy through a betting bot.
Always be prepared with a sizeable bank to cover a reasonable run of outs. This way, over time, the odds
should be in your favour to profit. If you are betting at the TAB, understand
you are paying for this enjoyment and keep your bets to a minimum! Best of punting!
Form Guide Help at Horse Racing Tips
Easy-form is provided to allow you to narrow down your selections in the quickest possible time by using groups of categories to either match or eliminate qualifying selections.
 Table Rating for race
Our market price
estimates are now derived from one of two historical tables named 'A' or
'B". An 'A' or 'B" next to the race class heading indicates which
table was used to determine the market prices. Table A holds specific
information about the track and distance (we no longer check going, area and
day-of-week) and Table B is specific to the distance only. A combination of
Table 'A' and Table 'B' may be used, but only the most common one is indicated.
Table 'A' should be slighter closer aligned to the real market.
The details within the [square brackets] indicate information about the average
form we used to produce our ratings. We provide this information as a possible
filter for you to use, because the less information we have, the less accurate we are. The first number indicates the average form per horse and the second
number indicates the average form per horse at the distance, but only if the
horse has form (ie debut horses are not in the average). This information is
also included in the Quick Print tables. For example, "[9-1]" above means each horse has, on average, 9 starts and each horse, on average, has had 1 run at a similar distance (e.g. 1800m)
Selections and Results Table
At the Barriers Tip
This
tip is a Level 3 subscription tip. It is provided within the last few minutes
before the official race start time (Usually within 3 minutes to 30 seconds). A
code |A| to |E| is added to the tip to provide a very basic insight into the
quality of the horse. It should be used as a guideline only. "Value"
and "Roughie" tips may also be provided representing good value in the
market. Sometimes a race may be flagged as a "Poor betting Market",
this means that there is little race confidence and the information used with
care. We will indicate if a horse is a first starter. We only provide this
service on races that are covered by both the QTAB and Betfair. If we cover the
race, and there is no selection, we will advise of this.
Our Selections
These
selections are the top 6 HRT ratings (refer below) in order. They are provided
at the time of the initial posting and subject to charge (e.g. due to
scratchings, jockey changes, going changes etc).
Confidence Order
These
selections are the top 6 Confidence Factor ratings (refer below) in order. Level
3 subscribers have access to early morning ratings (about 6:45 am EST). Other
subscribers have access to the final ratings around 8:45am EST and subject to
charge (e.g. due to scratchings, jockey changes, going changes etc).
Form Guide - TAB Race Results
Race
result details as posted on the QTAB website provided for your convenience as
early as possible after the running of the race..
Form Guide - General Information Table
The following symbols
will be displayed next to the appropriate horse's name if there is a tip in the
race. They can also be identified under Data Listing
or Quick Print pages. Overlays are important in most cases :-
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Premium Tip
symbol. This tip will only
display if you have purchased the Premium Tip
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Super Tip symbol.
This tip will only display if
you have purchased the Super Tip or are a paying subscriber (then it is free).
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Free Tip symbol.
This tip will only display if
you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access (however, it can be viewed under
the free tips listing on the main page).
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Sure Fire Tip symbol.
This tip will only display if
you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. It is also the most commonly used
tip by subscribers.
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'Best Bets' Tip symbol.
This tip will only display if
you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. It is also one of our oldest tip being
provided since starting in January 2002.
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Extra Value
Tip symbol.
This tip will only display if
you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. Older selection method to
find winners and place getters at higher odds.
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Ready to Win Tip symbols.
This tip will only
display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. These green dots indicate
that the horse is performing well. If you follow exotics, we
recommend that you include these horses in your combinations.
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No form
symbols. These
are not tips but rather a rating for no form horses. It uses jockey, barrier,
trainer, barrier trails etc to provide some indication on how the horse may be
considered in the market when the race is near jump time. The symbols range from
having no pink asterisks
to a maximum of three pink asterisks (the latter being for the most desirable no form
horses). Useful for early market betting when the market is not active enough
to gauge no form horses. Should not be used for selecting bets, but maybe an
indicator to eliminate a race if a strong no-form horse is in the race and may
beat your selection.
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Codes (Flags)
"t" - likes this track,
"T" - loves this track
"l" - Lightly weighted (usually with f or F, therefore light and
fast!)
"f" - fast times,
"F" - super fast times (should also have "d" code for
strong indicator)
"d" - Top 3 distance ratings
"x" - Top 3 strike rate and strike rate over 20%,
"X" - Top 3 strike rate and strike rate over 40%
"r" - low (good) risk value
"s" - good first and last sectional times
"c" - class rating > 10% lead, "C" - class rating >
20% lead
"k" - top 2 class rating > 10% lead, "K" - Top 2 class rating >
20% lead (k or K - always 2 in race).
"!" - Normally a "Heavy Weight Marker/s" - refer below for details
Heavy Weight Marker/s: A "!" normally means the Horse is running with more than 57kg (after deducting the jockey's allowance weight) AND the horse has shown performance issues previously at such weights. It could be a useful indicator if you want to eliminate your BACK selection, however, since class is not being considered, it should not be used as a LAYING strategy. A second "!" means that the horse also runs mid field or worse (in this race) AND is a slow finisher, so the heavy weight may impact it more than normal down the straight (once again, no consideration to class). However, the jockey may ride this horse closer to the front to mitigate this. In general though, a flag code of both indicators (e.g. "!!") should be seriously considered as a disadvantage. Sometimes a "!" means the has performed poorly First Up. This may be confusing to differentiate, but the intention of the Exclamation Mark system is to show Horse's that are generally disadvantaged, not specifically why. If you need to differentiate, the HEAVY disadvantage Field (refer below in EasyForm section) only lists the Heavy Weight Marker/s.
Running Position (Rpos)
This table details the horses
estimated running position of today's race. It takes into consideration barrier
position, its past running positions and its "out-of-the-gate"
speed. The number next to the codes below indicates the " losses to wins" delta in the calculated running position. A horse
that has run well in 6 races in this position and has run poorly in 2 races in
this same
position will have an advantage delta of + 4. A horse with (0) means that it shows
no bias. A horse with "?" means that we are unsure of its
running position and it has not shown past ability. We suggest that you
avoid races where there are many unknowns (or question marks). A leader
with a high positive delta is idea so that the race ends up running as
determined. A horse with "CL" means that the horse has run
poorly in this position in the past but is better off in this race due to a
lower Class race or lower weight - also expect back runners to run closer mid
field.
Positioning codes;
(F:#) - Front Runner
(P:#) - Pace Runner (i.e. 2nd or 3rd)
(M:#) - Mid Field Runner
(B:#) - Back Runner
(X:#) - Large Field Back Runner
There is also a graphical representation - click on RPOS link.
Trainer
This field details the
Trainer that trains the horse. If this field has "UNKNOWN" as
the trainer, this more than likely means that the trainer is not listed in our
top rated trainer database rather than the literal meaning of the word.
Confidence Factor (CFactor)
This field represents our Confidence Factor for each horse's chance of
winning and should be used to determine how much overlay (or underlay) is
required. For example, a horse we rate at $2.00
and has a low confidence factor should demand a large overlay, conversely
a $2.00 rated horse with a high confidence factor should be considered
as a strong chance of winning without regard to overlay. If we rate a horse at say $10 and it has a high confidence
factor, then this horse could represent value if you can get a good
overlay on it. A horse we rate at $10 with a low Confidence Factor could
be a good lay. HRT pricing and Confidence factors are different methods
so you may see anomalies, this is because HRT prices consider the past
7 runs, whereas the Confidence Factor only considers recent runs (usually they
both consider the same runs, but in some cases they may not especially when
horses are not consistent in form). Use the Confidence Factor as a "second opinion" on our
ratings! A suggestion is to consider horses with Confidence
Factors of 80% or
more for the win and include any Confidence Factor rated horse (40% or
above) for your exotic multiples. You may be able to add additional
value by considering the horse's distance ability, our overall
risk factor under Easy Form and other factors like the number of
past runs, first up etc. This field is less accurate for
"Insufficient Form" races. Warning: A rating of
100% does not mean that the horse will definitely win (we wish) but means
a horse has a strong chance of winning. We have found that, although the strike
rates are high, the general public are aware of these horses and therefore are
typically over-bet and eliminate any chance of long term profit - it may be a
strategy to avoid them!
HRT PNTS
This field details our raw
rating used to calculate the HRT price (HRT WIN and HRT PLC - refer below).
The rating is not based on individual levels but on how each horse ranks in each
EasyForm category. For example, a horse rated first in Class/Wgt will get the same points allocated to another horse rated first in Class/Wgt in another race, regardless of their Class/Wgt rating. We would expect that
the superior rated horse would be ranked higher in more categories and get a
better rating overall. The important factor is not so much the rating
itself (although a race with low ratings is a difficult race) but the gap
between them. The larger the gap (ie 10%+) the more certain the selection
is to perform well. For interest sake, the maximum rating to date is 290 held by two
horses. Both won at $1.30 and $1.40.
HRT PLC and WIN
These fields use the "HRT PNTS" as a rating. We then calculate the percentage chance of "HRT PNTS" winning or placing (when taking into consideration all other horses in the same race). For example, if a horse with a certain "HRT PNTS" has a 50% chance of winning, we would rate it $2. Likewise for the place. The "HRT WIN" and "HRT PLC" reflect these dollar values. The yellow background just indicates it is the Top Rater.
Good Debut Horse (GDH)
Good Jockey, barrier and trainer. Usually the market
picks up on this. We recommend that you only use this information to avoid the
race, include in your exotic bets or bet on if it is at great odds (e.g.
>10/1). If there are no SF/F & D runners in Best Speed/Wgt, then it has
a good chance of winning.
Form Guide - Markets Table
This
table presents the current QTAB Tote and Fixed priced odds at time of display.
It also presents the current Betfair Back and Lay Win and Place odds at time of
display. A Dutch Calculator is also provided for Dutch betting between QTAB's
fixed odds and Betfair Win and Place Back odds (although place Dutch betting is
not normally focused on by most). The
four links at the bottom of the page will direct you to the appropriate
provider's page for the particular race. For example the Isabet.com link will
take you directly to the betting page for this race.
Form Guide - Distance
Distance Data
This
data is a little difficult to interpret. Each "." represents a
distance from 800m to 3200m. A "<" symbol shows where the 1000m,
2000m and 3000m points are. The above example is for 1800m (rounded to the
nearest 100m). To assist in identifying where today's race distance is, we put
today's distance data in brackets e.g. "( )". The higher the number,
the better the performance at today's distance. Numbers to the left mean the
horse has performed at shorter distances. Numbers to the right mean the horse
has performed at longer distances. The most important data is within 200m for
short distance races, 400m for medium distance races (like the example) and 600m
for long distance races.
Days Last Run
Days
since the horse's last run.
This information is important for horses coming back from a spell or are backing
up quickly after a recent race.
1st, 2nd Up
Performance
of the horse for first up runs (after a spell) and second up runs (after a
spell). The first number is the number of runs, the second, the number of
wins.
Distance 'Seasoned'
This
data shows how well the horse is 'seasoned' to run at today's distance using
official race data. If the data shows that a horse is 'seasoned' it should be a
reasonable indicator to show that the horse will run out the distance. The rule
is, the longer the distance, the more distance seasoning required. However horse
training is not always official (e.g. at trackwork, barrier trials etc) so a
horse can still be seasoned without any indicator here.
Form Guide - Jockey Trainer
RPOS/BP Bias Range 0 to 100% (100% best)
This
data provides an alternative aspect to the typical barrier tables most punters
check. Many punters may wrongly assume, as an example, that a wide barrier is a poor
barrier, however, if the horse is a strong leading horse, it should quickly run to
the front without much difficulty. A strong backmarker can drop to the back with no effort at all. Therefore the barrier position should be taken in consideration with the running style/strength of each horse. This data attempts to do this and represents it as a percentage. A percentage higher than 50% indicates a positive bias and less than 50% indicates a negative bias. A green background shows a strong positive bias, a red background a poor negative bias. Relying on this information alone many not pick winners, but this information should serve useful for people that need to find reasons to eliminate or consider their own selections.
TR LVL Range 0 to 100% (100% best)
This data uses our trainer rating. It lists all trainers (not just the top 5 as listed in the Easyform table) but as a percentage. It also shows the trainer rating for unraced horses (which is not listed in the Easyform table). To calculate our actual trainer rating, find the 100% rated horse trainer rating in the Easyform, then divide this number by each percentage listed i.e. If the 100% horse has a trainer rating of 26 in the easyform table, the horse rated at 86% would be 26/.86 = 30.
JOCK LVL Range 0 to 100% (100% best)
This data uses our jockey rating. It lists all jockeys (not just the top 5 as listed in the Easyform table) but as a percentage. It also shows the jockey rating for unraced horses (which is not listed in the Easyform table). To calculate our actual jockey rating, find the 100% rated horse jockey rating in the Easyform, then divide this number by each percentage listed i.e. If the 100% horse has a jockey rating of 10 in the easyform table, the horse rated at 75% would be 10/.75 = 13.
JOCK BONUS Range 0 to 100% (100% best)
This
is a jockey, track, distance rating as a percentage. If the Jockey that performs best at a certain
track and distance, will receive 100%. Poor jockeys or jockeys without data will be 0%. A green background shows a strong positive bias, a red background a poor negative bias. This data can be useful for identifying good performing jockeys with local or distance ability (other jockey tables do not take these parameters into consideration).
OVERALL SCORE Range 0 to 100% (100% best)
This
is the total score for Running and Barrier bias, Trainer, Jockey, a jockey bonus, represented as a percentage. Any figure greater that 60% has a green background.
JOCK Rides
This
is the Jockey's performance on the horse. (no. of rides on horse) : (wins on
horse) - (places on horse) S: (samples in database) L3: (Rides in last 3 runs)
(! = poor performance) (# = late jockey allocation or change). Look out for high
strike rate jockeys (e.g. wins and places high for no. of rides) returning to
the horse (e.g. L3: 0). Some
interesting pointers are:- 1. When the jockey as ridden the horse last 3 starts
(E is 3) but no wins or places recorded. 2. When the jockey has not ridden the
horse for the last 3 starts (E is 0) but a lot of wins or places are recorded -
e.g. a jockey is back on that performs well (this could work powerfully with the
Jock Bonus above).
Form Guide - Easy Form (Part A)
Best Jockeys
Each jockey's rating is calculated on the
number of city and/or country wins, places and the number of runs in the race
state (e.g. NSW, VIC etc) today. Therefore a good jockey from VIC may not be rated as highly if
riding in NSW, mainly because its experience may be less in a different state
(as indicated statistically). Ratings are calculated over 2 years and the
tables are updated about twice a year.
This table may list less than 5 jockeys or no jockeys at all. We have a cut off
point on quality. This ensures we don't list mediocre jockeys that are the
"best of a bad bunch". You can find all the jockey ratings under
table B.
Sometimes you may find a horse rated in the "Best Jockeys" category without
a jockey declared for the day. The reason why this occurs, is that we
make an assumption that the same quality jockey will ride this horse as
previously. This usually ends up being the case (and our market estimates are
calculated on what should eventuate). However, you should make sure
that a good jockey does end up riding the horse. We will endeavour to update
our tables with the known jockey (and correct rating) when the information comes to hand.
The number next to the horse name is our jockey positioning by state. A
"(1)" indicates that the jockey riding the horse is, in our opinion,
is the best jockey in the state.
The
"+" next to the jockey name means that the jockey is having their ONLY
ride today - a great indicator to check (especially if the Trainer is also a top 5
trainer). This is a late calculation.
Best Trainers
Same
principle as jockey ratings.
Best Class/Wgt I
This section is a variation of the
"Winning More" class system created by the late and legendary DON
SCOTT. This is a complex system in itself and many people just follow this type
of information. The DON SCOTT class rating* is provided in brackets ie
(65) meaning a class rating of 65. Look for 5-10kg gaps between runners
indicating a truly classy horse when compared to the rest of the
field. This category provides an in depth analysis of class and the affects of
class and
weight changes on a horse. We recommend that you review
DON SCOTT's book to understand his principles. "Winning More" is published by
Horwitz Grahame Pty Ltd ISBN 0 7255 2115 5 and is a
brilliant class determination method. It does not consider other variations such
as race times and running pattern, which we include in our other categories
to provide a complete service.
This class system
(Version I) relies on certain "Form Patterns" to determine a horse's
"baserun". We do not always use the horse's last race, as the "baserun" used
depends on the form pattern of its past recent races. Because horses can
have reasons for poor runs, we can check as far back as 7 runs.
* We exclude jockey ratings in this category because we use
the Best Jockey category
instead.
Best Pace/Wgt
This section works on the horse's overall race times
at similar distances and average weights. We analyse its current preparation and
a similar period last preparation. The data is then
compared to today's weight. Additional codes include; fast-codes (sf=super
fast, f=fast)
which indicates faster than average runners, and a distance-code (d) which
indicates if a horse has run at this distance. If there are a lot of debut
horses in the race and there are no horses in this section that has a fast-code,
it is best to avoid the race as a debut horse has a better chance of winning
over average speed horses. A "sf"
fast-code at the "d" distance code, indicates a powerful combination.
However "sf" without "d" indicates a risky position - it may
over-race and/or not run the distance. We also include a "^" code indicating when a horse has
not been "seasoned" for the distance in the current preparation. This
does not mean the horse is not a winning chance, just some additional risk so
you may wish to avoid the race.
The value in
brackets for each horse indicates the delta in times compared to the top
rater. Of course the top rater will always be (.0). More credit should
be given to horses that have the "d" flag as this indicates a more
accurate time.
Look for the "light and fast" section to see how
the horse fairs there
also.
Speed is a difficult rating to use. It's rating can be
very impressive or misleading. For example, horses that win by large margins
more than likely canter over the line to preserve fitness. Others sometimes are not pace
setters or leaders and so their times are set by others that lead in their
races.
Forward Runners
In a race with a lot of form, this category typically
indicates the top leaders of the race to set the pace. The probability we post
for the horse's chance of winning a race usually relies on these horses actually
running these positions. So during the race, check the front markers and if we
have these close to actuals, then the odds should fall true. A race may not run to our
predictions because of varying racing conditions, a jockey's change of plan or
even a horse fitness to name a few. In this case, luck will play its part.
The '~' code
indicates horses with fast first sectional times. You can use this information
to determine whether a horse will get across from a wide barrier or checking any
leader conflict early in the race. For example, a front runner (f) on the outer
barrier of a fast pace runner (p~) may both race too hard early. It is preferred
that the front runner have the fast sectionals (f~) or at least a closer barrier
to the rail over the p~ horse. If confused, skip the race.
This category is also useful for race-days when leaders
win most races, for whatever reason they do, it is useful to know the next
leaders of the next race!
To determine which tracks and distances suit and disadvantage front runners
click on front runner stats.
Best At Track
A category on the track
strike rate. A '+' indicates that the horse performs better at this track
than any other track. The indicator is not dependent on the track strike
rate, so a horse can have the '+' symbol without being a top track rater.
Ideally a horse should have the best track strike rate and a '+' indicator.
We provide a second '+' indicator for horses that are truly biased to the
track - Watch for these.
The "?" indicator means that the runs on
the track are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any
judgement. The
(###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and
fractions for 2nd and 3rd. Since decimals are rounded, points may be slightly
exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can
only be achieved if they were all wins.
There is a special value of (0) which indicates the horses with some (2 races) track
experience, but with no points.
Best At Distance
A basic category on distance success. A
range of 0-3 pluses ('+') are used to indicate how good the top distance
raters are. We also include a "^" code indicating when a horse has
not been "seasoned" for the distance in the current preparation. This
does not mean the horse is not a winning chance, just some additional risk so
you may wish to avoid the race.
The "?" indicator means that the runs at
the distance are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any
judgement. The
(###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and
fractions for 2nd and 3rd. Since decimals are rounded, points may be
slightly exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can
only be achieved if they were all wins.
Good Margin Last Start
This section details the horses that won a race last
start irrespective of the class or time of the race. Therefore this field should
be analysed with the class and time categories provided, but in some cases,
horses may be moving up in grade or cantering to the line, so class & speed
are not always conclusive.
Tenacity
The horse's tenacity or
want to win, similar to win strike rate, but not related to winning 'per se' so also applies to maiden races.
Not class specific so should be read in conjunction with our class field for a
more meaningful result.
Lowest Risk
This section looks at almost 50 conditions to determine
the risk of a horse in a race. Some examples include distance, jockey and track
experience. This category indicates the lowest risk horse in the race, NOT a low risk
horse.
The number next to the horse name is our risk rating. A
(1) indicates that the risk is very low. This field is a great indicator and
should be checked in your studies. Carefully scrutinize horses that have a risk
factor greater than 20. Horses lower than 30 points are listed.
Best Win Strike
A basic category on WIN success. Maiden races will have
this section empty. WE
DO NOT USE THIS CATEGORY IN OUR CALCULATIONS. Win Strike Rate is a common
parameter used by the public and our system is designed to follow value
around public opinion. If a horse is a good overlay and also has a high
rating here, you are getting great value.
The number next
to the horse name is the strike rate in percent.
Best Place Strike
A basic category on
PLACE success. WE
DO NOT USE THIS CATEGORY IN OUR CALCULATIONS. Place Strike Rate is a common
parameter used by the public and our system is designed to follow value
around public opinion. If a horse is a good overlay and also has a high
rating here, you are getting great value.
The number next
to the horse name is the strike rate in percent.
Good Positioning
The top raters of the
Rpos
table (refer above). We do not present "-1" delta when there is only
one run. High
ratings here must make the horse worthwhile considering.
Barrier Trail Well
Usually for horses returning from a spell. This is
something that should be in our main calculations but is usually difficult to
quantify. If a horse is in this category and is in the betting - give it some
thought and bear in mind that our calculations exclude this knowledge. We will
rarely include a '#' symbol next to the horses in this category. This means
that this horse typically runs well first up. So if it is training well and
runs well first up... well you be the judge.
Light & Fast
Uses Best
Speed/Wgt ratings but carefully looks at the
weight shift to determine if at a true advantage today. Seriously give
these horses a consideration.
Form Guide - Easy Form (Part B)
Strong Finisher
Horses that run middle
to back field and finish
strongly irrespective of class and speed. The positioning, final sectionals
and the length of the straight are all taken into consideration. This is
extremely useful for horses moving quickly up in class, because the class is
unclear and the times are set by lower class pace setters.
Jockey Return
This is an interesting category where we believe a
jockey is returning to horse to run it at its best ability today. Watch (and be
prepared) for dramatic changes in betting.
Best At Going
The "?" indicator means that the runs at the going are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any
judgement. The
(###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and
fractions for 2nd and 3rd. Since decimals are rounded, points may be
slightly exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can
only be achieved if they were all wins.
Average Prize Money
We average the prize
money of recent runs (this is not the standard Average Prize Money used on some
TAB forms), of each horse with an importance placed on the
most recent races. More often than not, winners are previous prize money
winners, so make sure your methods check this category. The category alone
can sometimes be misleading so also include the Tenacity
and Best Class/Wgt categorie
as a cross check. Horses that have prize money winnings without Tenacity
or Best Class/Wgt may mean an
out of class (or too heavy) or inconsistent winner. Horses that are in Tenacity
but without Prize Money may
not be a negative factor. Horses in this scenario may mean that they are just
missing or receiving small prize money winnings.
Best Class/Wgt II
Version II uses a
totally different perspective to version I (refer above) by using a simple Form Pattern checker
on recent runs only (or first run run/s if
running after a spell). This allows you to get a quick gauge of the horse's
recent ability. It does not take into consideration at what distances etc
so use with some caution. We have not focused on this field but have seen this
field select many longshot winners so maybe worthwhile monitoring for long
shots or checking the other categories to ensure that the horse can run the
distance etc.
D/Seasoned
Ranking
of best horses distance 'seasoned' to run at today's distance using official
race data. It should be a reasonable indicator that the horse will run out the
distance. The rule is, the longer the distance, the more distance seasoning
required. However horse training is not always official (e.g. at trackwork,
barrier trials etc) so a horse can still be seasoned without any indicator here.
1st Half Sectional
Horses
(in order) that will run the first sectional quickly. The blue arrow pointing upwards means that the horse may improve from this position. A red arrow pointing downwards means that the horse may struggle maintaining this position.
2ndt Half Sectional
Horses
(in order) that will run the last sectional quickly. The blue arrow pointing upwards means that the horse may improve from this position. A red arrow pointing downwards means that the horse may struggle maintaining this position.
Heavy
DISADVANTAGE
FIELD: This rating penalises horses that are heavy in weight
and up in weight from previous starts (constantly heavy horses are not
penalised). Horses that run at the back of the field and are slow down
the straight are indicated with an exclamation mark "(!)". these
horses should be avoided unless the horse is a quality horse with good natural
speed and turn-of-foot. This category is strongly used in our penalty system
to set the market price. Refer to the section above "Heavy Weight Marker/s" for more details on the Exclamation Mark system.
Wide/Inconvenienced
DISADVANTAGE
FIELD: Horses in this
category may run wide or may be inconvenienced in this race. Typically these
horses are slow to jump and have a wide barrier (relative to the other horses in
a similar running position), hence the likelihood to run wide or be
inconvenienced by the jockey sending the horse forward or backward in the field.
This information is useful if you wish to lay a horse and this field adds
further confidence (do not use solely) or if you want to remove some risk from
your larger bets (ie avoid bet on horses that may be inconvenienced).
Since the running of the race can vary greatly, this category is not 100%
accurate, however, tends to fall true in larger field races and where the pace
is genuine. It is also important to note that horses can win running wide
(especially if the track conditions suit) and some horses may find the assumed
"inconvenienced" position actually convenient (ie mid field runner up
front may find that it's a strong front runner). The HRT prices reflect some
risk component in the price.
Form Guide - Speed Map
The
"Leader" horse indicates where the Front (F) running horse should be
in a normal pace race (distance taken into consideration). If the Front runner
is significantly to the left of the "Leader", then this may mean a
slower pace race and could advantage the front runners. The Front runner significantly
to the right of the "Leader" may advantage the backmarkers (especially
if other horses are to the right of the "Leader" horse as well).
Horses out wide could also be disadvantaged.
Form Guide - Quinella and Exacta Tables
Suggested
Quinella and Exacta overlays, however, since exotics are not normally fixed
price and most TABS do not provide pre-start exotic tote odds, these tables are
not too useful.
Getting Started |
What is an Overlay and Underlay?
Use your own rules
with our summarised information or find value with our prices we
provide you. Finding value is relatively easy. Firstly you need to
understand overlays and underlays.
The easiest way to describe an overlay is by way of example.
Consider the analogy
of coin tossing. In a hypothetical situation, lets consider that a
newspaper is full of tips on a coin tossing event and the public
money weighs towards "heads" and "heads" ends up on
the NSW TAB at $1.80 and "tails" $2.20 (assuming no
TAB margin). You are probably thinking,
"tails" is now looking great value! Lets consider why you
think this.
1. You subconsciously gauged that the probability of each situation winning, ie
"heads" and "tails" were both 50:50.
2. You then converted each probability into a price, ie 50% =
(1/50%)
= $2.00.
3. You then considered that the odds on offer for "heads" was under the
probability of winning, ie $1.80 is less than $2.00.
4. You then considered that the odds on offer for "tails" was over the
probability of winning - great value ie $2.20 is better than $2.00.
5. You then considered that the "tails" bet was an overlay at
1.1x ($2.20/$2.00). (Top marks if got this one right!)
You have just passed the first level of understanding overlays.
Underlays are just the opposite, for example "tails" is
a bad overlay but a good underlay. Underlays are used for
laying.
How do we work out our Market Prices?
Firstly you
need to note that we provide market prices not ratings. Ratings
are very different to prices. Ratings do not show you the
probability of the horse's chance of winning, prices do. For
example a 100 points rater, does not indicate its chances
of winning, however, a $2.00 priced horse has a predicted 50%
chance of winning. Our prices are
based on our strike rate over many years of data. We check
things like a horse's speed, class, jockey, trainer, running
position, barrier, weight, track performance, distance performance, going
performance, tenacity, strike rate, risk and so
on. So a horse we price at $2.00 means exactly that, 50% of all
horses won in our database under the same scenario. Historically
speaking, we are 100% accurate, but in reality there will be an
error.
This
is an important factor to remember:- Even if we were 100%
accurate, our prices are the minimum prices to accept just to
break even. So betting on a $2.80 horse that we rate $2.80 is ludicrous.
This is because even if we were 100% accurate, you'd only break
even. Also or prices
include the bookie margin to reflect what to expect with TAB's and
Bookies. Therefore the bare minimum
overlay level would need to be 1.2x, just to break even.
Betting on our top raters that are underlays is no different than the
misguided public taking "heads" in our coin tossing analogy - they can only
lose in the long run.
What do you need to do?
Following on with the
analogy, we provide steps 1 & 2 by working out the chances a horse has
to win and then the prices. Your role is to complete the remaining steps
3-5. You need to look for odds greater than our market estimates for
the same reason why you would take "tails" in our analogy
above, we provide the probability of a horse winning, you look for where
the value is. That can be with the bookies or any of the TABs around the country.
With TABs though, you need to bet near jump time to ensure that the same
overlay will occur at jump time. There are
also great services on the web that offer the best price from all 3 TAB
services. Check your jurisdiction though as some offshore betting may be illegal.
The Basic Rules
1.
Discipline and patience is virtue. If you are the type that needs
to bet every race then this approach will not work. If you are the
type that changes his/her betting plan to suit the mood, this
approach will not work. You must remain diligent to your plan and
be prepared to wait for the opportunities to arise.
2. Determine the overlay
value to run and stick with. The actual correct way to work it out is as
follows.
OVERLAY
PRICE = PRICE-1*OVERLAY_RATIO+1
UNDERLAY PRICE=PRICE-1/UNDERLAY_RATIO+1
For example, a 1.5x overlay on our rating of $4.00 would be OVERLAY PRICE
= $4-1*1.5+1=$5.5
For beginners, we recommend OVERLAY
PRICE = PRICE*OVERLAY_RATIO, but you should consider the correct way once
you are confident.
3. Determine what
quality racing you want to follow. We recommend for starters to follow Metropolitan
Saturday racing. By definition, these races are on Saturdays
only and at city tracks. You can find these races by a code. The (M7) on
the top line of the Easy Form shows you this is a Metro Saturday race. You
really need to be able to master city racing first before attempting lower
grade tracks.
4. Determine the horses
you want to follow ie TOP 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. We recommend either the TOP 1
(top selection only) or all TOP 4 selections, but the final approach needs
to be determined by you (we can not make too many recommendations because
we can't have all members following the same plan).
5
It may also be profitable to follow profitable tracks and avoid
low-performance tracks. Please check
here for past performance results. These tables also include
the rules, exclude Heavy tracks, Insufficient Form Races and Races
with Race data 5 or less.
6. Have the
right mindset. You are no longer the market follower but the market leader
- the "sheep" at the track are waiting for your move!
Helpful Hints
If you are at the track, it is better not to wait for betting fluctuations
to determine what the professionals are betting on. Our market prices in conjunction
with our Confidence Factor ratings provides you with the best
information at hand, and it's your move that the followers at the
track are waiting for! If you plan to bet the top horses in the market,
and our Confidence Factor is high and the overlays are there, take the bookie overlay whilst you can, the odds typically come in as
a result of your bet along with the other professionals. This will become more evident
as you use the system, especially at the track.
If you are in the habit of
reading or listening to media tips - we suggest you avoid them. The tipsters confidence
will cloud your decision. Even worse, you might miss an overlay bet and bet on a losing tipsters tip!
We have looked at many main stream tipsters best bets and they should be called
"Best strike rate - Worst Profit". Think about it, there is always
going to be too much public money on these horses and the returns are just going
to be poor. Bookies know that people will want to bet on them at lower
odds, so they are more than likely going to try to give the lowest odds possible.
If you have the discipline, access the media
to gain a further advantage. Look for
tipsters information that affect the market and may justify why the weight of
money is on a particular horse. This is what you want to find, weighted money on one horse
which opens up overlays on others. Start by checking the 2KY tips, Late Mail and
Skychannel, these three tipping sources that guide most of the market. The
other horses will increase in value and you should be well informed to wotk out
what is value and what is not. An alternative is to avoid the race or if
you are more aggressive, lay the horse - the probability is on your side to make
a profit if you can get similar TAB odds. Some of our internal laying strategies
rely on how many public tipsters pick a horse, the more the
better!
If a horse is under our market, then look on. This
follows our bet for investment philosophy. Sometimes however, it is hard to pass
or bet against the top-rater, especially a very popular one. So use your
own discretion, especially if you bet for pleasure, but make sure it does follow
some objective rules. For example, take unders only if it is a distance star
(+++) and has a jockey rating less than 10 (this is an adhoc example
only).
Don't spend time on analysing
raw form - we have done this hard work for you. Maximise your efforts in
checking barrier trials, horse fitness, last
start video runs, debut horses etc. This may allow you to eliminate some of your bets. If
you need to set up a form filter, we suggest that you use the Easy Form data.
This information is not subjective, so you can be assured that the information
has no bias and consistent each week.
Start thinking that all horse's have
a chance of winning. Each
horse's chance of winning can be
expressed in terms of odds. Our odds statistically indicate these chances.
A $2.00 horse has a 50% chance of winning. A $4.00 horse has a 25% chance of
winning and a 75% chance of losing. Once again we have not included the TAB
margin in these examples. Don't despair if your overlay bet doesn't win in
one race - this is a numbers game - long term you should win. We are openly
showing you that our $4.00 pick will only win 1 in every 4 races or cynically
lose 3 in every 4 races - think like this and it will be easier to understand
why an overlay is so important and not every horse will win.
Be careful
with place betting
and exotic betting. You must try to get overlays with these as well. Websites
such as Betfair offer fixed place betting, so do some bookies. Look for the
overlays! With Exotic punting, it is a lot harder, but we provide links to
follow overlays on quinellas and exactas (but these are not fixed odds so be
careful of the market fluctuations). You will find that our top 5
selections will win a lot of trifectas. However, you will lose long term
boxing the top 5. One alternative is to use the Exacta combinations we list and
box the remaining of the Top 5 for 3rd. This has not been tested it is only an
example. The secret to most exotic punting is limiting your
combinations and surviving on low strike rate high returns.
For the casual
punter who does not want to consider overlays etc but wants to dabble in the
exotics market, we suggest standing out the top 2 selections for first and
selections 3 & 4 for second on a quinella card. For example, 1/2, 3/4 for $4
(1 unit). For trifectas, consider two cards, 1, 2/3,
2/3/4/5 for $6 (1 unit) and 2/3, 1, 2/3/4/5 for $6 (1 unit) for
races with 7-12 starters.
If our framed market for
a horse is
well under the bookie or TAB odds and the horse starts to shorten quickly in the market, it
may represent a "good thing". The place market is a good
indicator of this in the TAB market. Once again, if the win market
shortens quickly and the place pool lags behind considerably, we have
found that the horse is well in the betting.
Exotics without
favourites pay extremely well. So if we consider a short-priced favourite
to be a great underlay (Lay) - why not take a quinella without this favourite? If you can ride the losses, a big one
awaits!
Comparing the tips of
other main-stream services is a good option.
However, the market price usually reflects this widely known position and
typically offers poor value. Sometimes tipsters tips run at good overlays
and these are definitely worth taking, but you might have a hard time
trying to find double or higher overlays so stick with something that's
realistic like 1.5x. Many of our existing subscribers also use their
own final selection process with excellent success. At the least, you will be more
comfortable with your bet if you know we have also rated your selection a good
chance.
Use Easy Form
to create your own filters. Your additional effort should make it more rewarding
for you when a horse wins. Some things to look for
are front runners at leaders tracks. Very light horses or simple
combinations such as betting on the top tip that is also the top class and lowest
risk etc.
Another
helpful approach is to set an upper limit on the HRT price you will consider a
horse at. This ensures that you
maintain a good win strike rate. For example, you may decide to only bet on horses that we
frame at $2.50 or less but are still considered an overlay.
|
Testimonials
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Phill O, Melbourne, VIC Australia Membership no.
5721
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Artie H, Canberra,
ACT Australia Membership no. 3475
"Great
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overlays. 12 winning days from 14 over the last month who can complain at
that. The consistency at which the top rater keeps coming in at good odds at
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Les P, Swan View, WA Australia Membership no.
2040
" Hi
Guys, thank you, thank you , thank you, for offering access to the ARIS
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NSW Australia Membership no. 902
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Australia Membership no. 897
"I
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Mark B, Randwick , Membership no.
868
"Thank
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which also put forward a number of selections per race and brag how good
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Graham H, Bayswater
North VIC Australia, Membership no. 39
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I have been very impressed with the tips posted each day from horse racing
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trifectas with excellent results. I do refine the selection
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Phillip Z, Foster, VIC Australia Membership no.
804
"As
a Kiwi not familiar with or having ready access to Australian form and
statistics I found Horse Racing Tips excellent value for pointing me in the
right direction, especially with trifectas. All that's needed is patience."
Brian Impson, Hamilton, New Zealand, Membership no. 83
"Have
been utilising Horse Racing Tips for some months now and find their winner
strike rate extra good, seven days a week. Would have no hesitation in
recommending them to anyone."
Harold H, Australia, Membership no.
6
"Horse-Racing-Tips
is probably the only service provider in Australia that provides a 7 day a
week service with scratching and jockey change details on the half
hour. Horse-Racing-Tips is also probably the only site that posts the results at the
end of the day to openly show its progress and provides a free report of the day's
performance. A free weekly newsletter is provided on the continuing
profitability and two free races are provided per day, every day.
Horse-Racing-Tips has one of the lowest subscription fees on the net and
offers a genuine no obligation policy. Horse-Racing-Tips has been running
for approximately 5 months now and has over 600 registered users to date. At
the end of the day, profitability is where it counts and Horse-Racing-Tips
has been in the black month-on-month and this is without using any filters
or tricks, as commonly used by some competitors. A straight and honest
service. "
John H, Sydney , NSW
Australia Webmaster
Want
to tell us your story? - We would love to hear from you. Please send us an email!
'About Us' at Horse Racing Tips
Horse Racing Tips is an internet based service providing horse racing services since January 2002 and managed by an Australian business Trust. Horse Racing Tips provides quality horse racing information and tips for Australian and New Zealand horse racing. We summarise the form in an easy to read format and provide our recommended selections each race with our unique "Confidence factor" to further assist in determining value. Our service is ideal for Backing and Laying for the win & place, quinella and exacta betting. We provide real-time market prices to allow you to find value quickly through various wagering sources. Our additional quality tips provide low volume, high performance selections. 100% satisfaction guarantee for new members and free tips are offered to all registered users.
Contact Details
HRT Trust
ABN 86 325 371 520
P.O. Box 3502
Robina Town Centre Qld 4230
The following number is an SIM desk phone, not a mobile phone, so we can only answer when we are at our desk:-
Sales and Marketing Phone: 0481 373 333 *
* Please use Contact Form following as preferred contact method (or via Facebook)
Contact: Contact Form SMS message may be sent via this Contact Form to ensure prompt reply
Features and Benefits
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Easy to Read Form Summaries. Easy Form section - plain and simple form, providing you with the best opportunity to find the best horses quickly and accurately. Including our unique ratings and confidence factors. No more long hours of form study!
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Disclosed Results. The results of all services are summarised each day. Further information may be found at the Results List page.
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SMS Service. At an additional fee, Get tips sent to you each day by SMS messaging for 40 cents per message (most tips can be sent in one message)! No need to have access to a PC to get the daily best.
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Real-Time Odds. Optional, real time average Tab, Bookie Fixed price, AusTOTE and Betting Exchange prices displayed simultaneously on our racing pages. This feature allows you to isolate some of the best prices available on the internet in the quickest possible time. Also we provide IASbet and AusTOTE betting pages (as an option), ensuring that you waste no time in last minute "odds-chasing".
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Value Ratings.
Rating prices are calculated at a 120% market, the same market used by most bookies and TAB's. Using similar markets ensures that our value is not falsely generated. If you can identify value and use a wagering service offering great odds, you are in the best position to profit with horse racing. Ratings also allow you to identify poor value favourites and for setting betting exchange prices. With our new Bet Manager, it's even simpler, we display the best Backs and Lays instantaneously.
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Exotics. Follow Quinella and Exacta combination overlays to increase your Return on Investment by maximising value and eliminating bets that are poor value.
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Early Information. Information well before jump time, the previous day as a matter of fact. If you need excellent racing information at your fingertips whenever you want it, this is the service for you. We alsp provide scratching, jockey and track going updates every 90 minutes during the racing day. Use this service with confidence knowing that all information will be provided for the correct barriers, jockeys, racing patterns and weather conditions.
Ideal for taking advantage of early market fixed prices and betting services that offer discounts for early betting. We also cover Almost all NSW TAB races - every day, every week.
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Mobile. We provide a great off-line service too. Print one of four print summary pages
or download our website directly to your PDA for offline browsing.
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Low Cost Subscription. If
you prefer to use our service daily or regularly, opt for our Subscription service. Subscription rates are competitive and allow access all form services (excluding extended services). Services are activated instantaneously (you can access right now with a valid transaction)
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User Pays service.
If a subscription service is not for you, consider our Credit service to view the form pages
and tips
on the days you want and don't pay for the days you don't. Uses your HRT credit account to purchase information as required.
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History
We
consider ourselves as equestrian experts with a background in
computing. The first computer version of this racing service was
produced back in the late '70s. Throughout the 80's, the program
was rewritten to incorporate class ratings and market estimations
using the late DON SCOTT class rules (Don Scott was a well
respected turf specialist).
Today, this form service is more than a class system, it includes
over 20 categories to determine the horse's true form ability.
Some of these categories have been overviewed in EasyForm
and contributes to a large portion of our rating system and
confidence factor.
Data Availability
Calculations are usually provided the day before, around 9pm,
depending on whether of not the races finish early enough on the
day before, to also allow us to process results and post results
data. For example, Saturday race details should be posted 1 hour
after the last race on Friday. The 1 hour allows us to process the
Friday results and time for members to check.
Our
service compares horses with all other horses in the same race.
Important factors such as running position, sectional times and
barrier positions determine the end result and therefore our
market prices are impacted greatly by changes or scratchings. A
leading horse sets the pace in a race, which in turn determines
the finishing speed and its barrier position determines how easily
it will settle into its preferred positioning. A scratched horse
(e.g. a leader or a horses that dramatically changes its barrier)
will result in a new leader and therefore a new scenario. All this
detail is required before an accurate market price can be posted.
Although we post the early market the day before, we strongly
recommend that the final posting be checked at 12 noon EST.
We
always provide updates during the day for scratching, going and
jockey allocations.
Objectiveness
There
is no human intervention or decision being made in any of our calculations.
You can safely use our form, ratings and confidence factors in your own
calculations with the premise that all our postings are consistent week on
week. If you devise a form approach that works, the last thing you need is
someone changing the selective process and maybe decreasing your accuracy.
All information provided is based on a set of mature rules that rarely change
and many tables that are based on statistical data that are updated regularly (ie
jockey success, trainer success). Past tables are kept for past calculations
and new tables are used for future races.
Data Accuracy
Although
we make every effort to ensure data accuracy, the final responsibility lies
with the user to ensure that the details are correct. Postings are submitted by
our database and transfers over the internet and therefore subject to
misrepresentation or corruption. Always confirm information is correct when
performing your own analysis.
Business Ethics
Horse Racing Tips
will never access nor store Subscriber’s credit card numbers nor will
Horse Racing Tips provide details to other companies or spam email addresses.
Horse Racing Tips will deliver on what is promised and address any user
questions or concerns in a timely and professional manner.
A Subscriber may dispute any transaction or stop a subscription at any time
with ease.
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Hours of Operation
We
start at around 5:30am every morning and depending on the number of races
finish around 10:30am where we have posted all of today's and tomorrow's racing
information, scratchings (barrier adjustments), new jockey details. Premium and Every Day tips are available around 12:00 noon. Our
services are then batch processed every 90 minutes until the final race when
the results are then gathered. We monitor the site daily for performance issues
and emails.
Conditions
Please refer to
Conditions.
Tracks Coverage
ALBANY ALBURY ARARAT ARMIDALE ASCOT BAIRNSDALE BALAKLAVA BALLARAT BALLINA
BATHURST BEAUDESERT BELMONT PARK BENALLA BENDIGO BERRIGAN BORDERTOWN BOWRAVILLE
BROKEN HILL BUNBURY CAIRNS CAMPERDOWN CANBERRA CANTERBURY CASINO CASTERTON
CAULFIELD CESSNOCK CHELTENHAM CHELTENHAM PARK CLARE COFFS HARBOUR COLAC
COLERAINE COONABARABRAN COONAMBLE COOTAMUNDRA COROWA COWRA CRANBOURNE DALBY
DEVONPORT DONALD DOOMBEN DUBBO EAGLE FARM ECHUCA EDENHOPE ESK FLEMINGTON FORBES
GATTON GAWLER GEELONG GERALDTON GILGANDRA GOLD COAST GOSFORD GOULBURN GRAFTON
GRENFELL GUNDAGAI GUNNEDAH HALIDON HAMILTON HANGING ROCK HAWKESBURY HOBART
HORSHAM INVERELL IPSWICH KALGOORLIE KEMBLA GRANGE KEMPSEY KILCOY KILMORE KYNETON
LAUNCESTON LISMORE MACKAY MILDURA MOE MOONEE VALLEY MOREE MORNINGTON
MORPHETTVILLE MORTLAKE MORUYA MT BARKER MT GAMBIER MUDGEE MURRAY BRIDGE MURTOA
MURWILLUMBAH MUSWELLBROOK NARACOORTE NARROGIN NARROMINE NEW ZEALAND NEWCASTLE
NORTHAM NOWRA OAKBANK ORANGE PAKENHAM PARKES PENOLA PENSHURST PINJARRA PORT
AUGUSTA PORT LINCOLN PORT MACQUARIE QUEANBEYAN QUIRINDI RANDWICK RICCARTON PARK
ROCKHAMPTON ROSEHILL SALE SANDOWN SAPPHIRE COAST SCONE SEYMOUR STAWELL STONY
CREEK STRATHALBYN SUNSHINE COAST SWAN HILL TAMWORTH TAREE TATURA TERANG
TOOWOOMBA TOWNSVILLE TRARALGON TRUNDLE TUMUT VICTORIA PARK WAGGA WALCHA
WANGARATTA WARRACKNABEAL WARREN WARRNAMBOOL WARWICK WARWICK FARM WELLINGTON
WERRIBEE WODONGA WYONG YARRA GLEN YORK
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