Friday Horse Racing Tips

Beginner's Guide on How to Find Value

The TAB minimum commission

Many Australian punters bet with the three Totaliser's based in QLD, NSW and VIC. These Totalisers (or TABs) have vast amount of outlets, phone operators and internet services. These services make TAB's a convenient operation to use. However, for this convenience, there are large overheads - high shop leases, technology and infrastructure, air conditioning, staff and wads of paper! Lets not forget corporate management salaries and shareholders! High costs and overheads require higher margins to operate, these higher margins reflect in the higher take on each race (e.g. poor odds).

So how much take is there? UNiTAB for example, can retain a commission up to 16%, that's by legislation (excluding exotic betting). But it doesn't stop there. Rounding down fractions are allowed. 'Rounding down' provides TABs with a significantly higher advantage than one might initially think (maybe even the legislation!).

On checking the UNiTAB odds over many years, the commission, on average, is well above 18%, rounding therefore contributes more than 2% more than what legislation allows in general. This equates to 12.5% more in profits to the TAB - a pretty sneaky way to increase revenue.

We are not suggesting TABs as profiteers, they are just covering their costs for the "convenience" - so now you know at what cost to you.

On a race by race basis, the commissions are even higher when the favourites are short priced. Lets look at one such race - IPSWICH Race 02, 20 August 2009. UNiTAB odds at the jump were:-

The effect of 'rounding down'

In this example, the Framed Market for UNiTAB was 122.6%, or their commission was 22.6% (for STAB it was 19.6% and NSW TAB 20.9%). If the Favourite alone was 'rounded up' to $1.30 instead of 'rounded down' to $1.20, the Framed Market would have been 116.2% or a commission of 16.2%. This example illustrates the additional gains 'rounding down' gives a TAB.

Believe it or not, these extreme commissions are even worse than poker machines. The "worst of the worst" poker machines only take 17.7% commission (or a Framed Market of 117.7%, normally quoted as 85% return). Good venues only take 5-10% or a Framed Market of 105 - 110%. Yes, venues have a choice on how much they pay back! The message here is not to change your punting habits to pokies ;-) but to show how having the convenience of a TAB really chews up your prifits.

Betting Exchange Odds

Lets consider a popular betting exchange and the final back and lay odds for the same race above.  It's important to note that these odds are unmatched, that means, 'unwanted' odds for the back and lay. The true matched odds are unascertainable as these are never displayed, however, they exist somewhere between the the back and lay odds. For calculation sake, we will use the average between them and the Framed Market of 101.8%.

Your Target Market

In our opinion, you should not take the offered back price but target your market near 100%. Seldom does a match fail at 100%, 30 seconds before jump time. Part of our service is to show you the 100% price, please check your 'User Settings' and select 'Calculated 100% betting mark for win odds'.  This is the sort of odds that will be displayed to a 100% market:

UPDATE: Consider "SP" odds on the betting exchange, these odds are set to a 100% market when the race jumps, No effort is required on your part to get the 100% market - however it is more difficult to dutch bet these odds, but you can nominate a match price if that helps.

The betting exchange does not allow fractions for odds over $10, for example, odds between $30 - $50 need to be in increments of 2. This makes it difficult to get the market framed at exactly 100%. In the example above, this restriction means the market can only be framed at 100.3% - close enough. 

Betting Exchange commission

The highest commission a punter will pay on a betting exchange is around 4.9% commission, it could be as low as 2% (depending on turnover).

UPDATE: It can be as high as 6.5% on some Australian races, they races should be avoided.

This is considerably less than the TAB's, because the overheads are so much less. Adding to this advantage, the betting exchange works commission on profits per race, not return per horse. This is an important factor. For example, using the race above, with a Betting Exchange, if the favourite had won, for $100, the return would have been $136 or a profit of $36, less 4.9% commission or about $34.25.  The TAB however only returned $120.00 or a profit of $20.

Another important factor is the "profits only per race". This means that you only pay commissions on the NET profit. This is a huge advantage if you punt more than one horse per race. If you had placed $100 each on the first two listed horses and assume the favourite had won, the TAB would have paid their actual tote price of $120 - you are down $80 from your outlay of 2x$100. However, with the betting exchange, since you made a loss in the race, there is NO COMMISSION paid. $136 less your loss of 2x$100 means you are only down $64. This might not sound much of an advantage, but I'm sure you would prefer to have an extra $16 in your wallet after the race. 

Dutch Betting

As the example above shows, a $100 bet on the top two horses result in a loss, even though one wins. However, If you had Dutch bet these horses, then you could still have shown a profit. At the end of the day, we want profits, not less losses! A simple calculation is to divide a fixed return amount by the odds. Lets assume the target is $100 per horse per race for the day. On the Favourite at $1.36 you would place a bet of $73.53 and on the second horse $16.67. This makes a total bet of $90.20. Regardless which one wins, the return will be $100 for your total bet of $90.20 or a small profit of $9.80 (less commission on the $9.80). As mentioned above, flat betting would have resulted in either two ways, a win of $36 or a loss of $64 - which approach is better? ..... Lowering your risk/exposure is usually considered a better position.  

The point is, a profit may be possible if the bets are proportioned correctly. There are three Dutch betting calculations that can be used. Go to your 'User Settings' and turn on 'Dutch Betting' to check it out. 

Selection Process

Ok, so you are now betting with a betting exchange, working your market at 100% and dutch betting - well done! However, even with the smallest commission charges, dutch betting in a 100% market will eventually lose you money because of the commission loss. If you can determine a selection process that only slightly improves your winning chances in a 100% market, you are set to profit over time. With large bets, even the smallest profit percentages will provide you with a sizeable return over time. With large bets, your betting exchange commission also drops to a lower level (from 4.9% to 2%). 

The better the selection process, the higher the profits. Your next move should be to determine a selection process that improves your position. You've come to the right place - our website should be able to help here! Review our information per race and see how you can increase your strike rate. Make sure you keep a log of your selections each day with the average Betting Exchange odds and once you find a return of around 110%, you are set.

How much should my Profit on Turnover be?

Good question, I see many selection processes offering a turnover profit of 20% or more, even insanely 100%+ in some cases! Apart from the fact that these turnovers are not substanable, you don't need to focus on such high levels to profit. Lets assume you have kept your log book running and have found your MAXIMUM runs of outs is 20 races in a row (this should be determined over 1000's of races). Therefore it makes sence your Bank should be 20 times your intended bet size (or 50 times if you use the Bank suggestion below). You have worked out your selection process provides a 10% profit on turnover. Calculate it this way, if you flat bet say $10 per race, you need a bank of $200. So your investment is $200 - that's what you stand to lose. If you bet $10 per race on say 300 races per week and 52 weeks per year, your turnover is in excess of $150,000. A 10% profit on turnover would be $15,000. So for a $200 investment, you're making $15,000 or 7,500% return. That's why a small profit on turnover can still be very attractive. Of course commissions need to be taken out etc, but that can't be determined as it is based on profit, not return and wins not losses.

Betting BOTS

Working out the 100% (or better) market prices for multiple selections and then calculating the Dutch Betting per horse all within a split second before jump time, then placing these bets can be a daunting task for mere mortal humans! We use our own BOT to do this and it works in conjunction with our website and information. If you have a proven selection process that works with our information, we would consider customising a BOT for you. Please contact us for further information. Otherwise, there are many BOTS available on the internet, just Google 'betting bots'. 

The Bank

Always ensure your Bank is large enough to cover your anticipated worst number of losses in a row. Even favourite punters have seen race meetings when favourites have missed the line all day. Normally a figure of 2% of your bank is an acceptable target. If you bet on several horses per race, your strike rate will be much higher, so a slightly higher target could be acceptable.  

Conclusion

Betting Exchanges offer better odds over the TAB's. Don't take the back odds offered, try to frame your market to at least 100%. Betting on more than one horse for the win increases your strike rate and you should consider Dutch Betting to proportion your risk.  Decide on a selection process that shows some potential and automate your betting strategy through a betting bot. Always be prepared with a sizeable bank to cover a reasonable run of outs. This way, over time, the odds should be in your favour to profit. If you are betting at the TAB, understand you are paying for this enjoyment and keep your bets to a minimum! Best of punting!

Form Guide Help at Horse Racing Tips

Easy-form is provided to allow you to narrow down your selections in the quickest possible time by using groups of categories to either match or eliminate qualifying selections. 

Table Rating for race

Our market price estimates are now derived from one of two historical tables named 'A' or 'B". An 'A' or 'B" next to the race class heading indicates which table was used to determine the market prices. Table A holds specific information about the track and distance (we no longer check going, area and day-of-week) and Table B is specific to the distance only. A combination of Table 'A' and Table 'B' may be used, but only the most common one is indicated. Table 'A' should be slighter closer aligned to the real market.

The details within the [square brackets] indicate information about the average form we used to produce our ratings. We provide this information as a possible filter for you to use, because the less information we have, the less accurate we are. The first number indicates the average form per horse and the second number indicates the average form per horse at the distance, but only if the horse has form (ie debut horses are not in the average). This information is also included in the Quick Print tables. For example, "[9-1]" above means each horse has, on average, 9 starts and each horse, on average, has had 1 run at a similar distance (e.g. 1800m)

Selections and Results Table

At the Barriers Tip

This tip is a Level 3 subscription tip. It is provided within the last few minutes before the official race start time (Usually within 3 minutes to 30 seconds). A code |A| to |E| is added to the tip to provide a very basic insight into the quality of the horse. It should be used as a guideline only. "Value" and "Roughie" tips may also be provided representing good value in the market. Sometimes a race may be flagged as a "Poor betting Market", this means that there is little race confidence and the information used with care. We will indicate if a horse is a first starter. We only provide this service on races that are covered by both the QTAB and Betfair. If we cover the race, and there is no selection, we will advise of this.

Our Selections

These selections are the top 6 HRT ratings (refer below) in order. They are provided at the time of the initial posting and subject to charge (e.g. due to scratchings, jockey changes, going changes etc).

Confidence Order

These selections are the top 6 Confidence Factor ratings (refer below) in order. Level 3 subscribers have access to early morning ratings (about 6:45 am EST). Other subscribers have access to the final ratings around 8:45am EST and subject to charge (e.g. due to scratchings, jockey changes, going changes etc).

Form Guide - TAB Race Results

Race result details as posted on the QTAB website provided for your convenience as early as possible after the running of the race..

Form Guide - General Information Table

The following symbols will be displayed next to the appropriate horse's name if there is a tip in the race. They can also be identified under Data Listing or Quick Print pages. Overlays are important in most cases :- 

	Premium Tip symbol. This tip will only display if you have purchased the Premium Tip
	Super Tip symbol. This tip will only display if you have purchased the Super Tip or are a paying subscriber (then it is free).
	Free Tip symbol. This tip will only display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access (however, it can be viewed under the free tips listing on the main page).
	Sure Fire Tip symbol. This tip will only display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. It is also the most commonly used tip by subscribers.
	'Best Bets' Tip symbol. This tip will only display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. It is also one of our oldest tip being provided since starting in January 2002.
	Extra Value Tip symbol.  This tip will only display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. Older selection method to find winners and place getters at higher odds.
	Ready to Win Tip symbols.  This tip will only display if you have Pay-Per-View or subscription access. These green dots indicate that the horse is performing well. If you follow exotics, we recommend that you include these horses in your combinations.
* * *	No form symbols. These are not tips but rather a rating for no form horses. It uses jockey, barrier, trainer, barrier trails etc to provide some indication on how the horse may be considered in the market when the race is near jump time. The symbols range from having no pink asterisks to a maximum of three pink asterisks (the latter being for the most desirable no form horses). Useful for early market betting when the market is not active enough to gauge no form horses. Should not be used for selecting bets, but maybe an indicator to eliminate a race if a strong no-form horse is in the race and may beat your selection.

Codes (Flags)

"t" - likes this track, "T" - loves this track 
"l" - Lightly weighted (usually with f or F, therefore light and fast!) 
"f" - fast times, "F" - super fast times  (should also have "d" code for strong indicator)
"d" - Top 3 distance ratings
"x" - Top 3 strike rate and strike rate over 20%, "X" - Top 3 strike rate and strike rate over 40%
"r" - low (good) risk value
"s" - good first and last sectional times
"c" - class rating > 10% lead, "C" - class rating > 20% lead
"k" - top 2 class rating > 10% lead, "K" - Top 2 class rating > 20% lead (k or K - always 2 in race).
"!" - Normally a "Heavy Weight Marker/s" - refer below for details

Heavy Weight Marker/s: A "!" normally means the Horse is running with more than 57kg (after deducting the jockey's allowance weight) AND the horse has shown performance issues previously at such weights. It could be a useful indicator if you want to eliminate your BACK selection, however, since class is not being considered, it should not be used as a LAYING strategy. A second "!" means that the horse also runs mid field or worse (in this race) AND is a slow finisher, so the heavy weight may impact it more than normal down the straight (once again, no consideration to class). However, the jockey may ride this horse closer to the front to mitigate this. In general though, a flag code of both indicators (e.g. "!!") should be seriously considered as a disadvantage. Sometimes a "!" means the has performed poorly First Up. This may be confusing to differentiate, but the intention of the Exclamation Mark system is to show Horse's that are generally disadvantaged, not specifically why. If you need to differentiate, the HEAVY disadvantage Field (refer below in EasyForm section) only lists the Heavy Weight Marker/s.

Running Position (Rpos)

This table details the horses estimated running position of today's race. It takes into consideration barrier position, its past running positions and its "out-of-the-gate" speed.  The number next to the codes below indicates the " losses to wins" delta in the calculated running position. A horse that has run well in 6 races in this position and has run poorly in 2 races in this same position will have an advantage delta of + 4.  A horse with (0) means that it shows no bias.  A horse with "?" means that we are unsure of its running position and it has not shown past ability.  We suggest that you avoid races where there are many unknowns (or question marks).  A leader with a high positive delta is idea so that the race ends up running as determined.  A horse with "CL" means that the horse has run poorly in this position in the past but is better off in this race due to a lower Class race or lower weight - also expect back runners to run closer mid field. 

Positioning codes;
     (F:#) - Front Runner
     (P:#) - Pace Runner (i.e. 2nd or 3rd)
     (M:#) - Mid Field Runner
     (B:#) - Back Runner
     (X:#) - Large Field Back Runner

There is also a graphical representation - click on RPOS link. 

Trainer

This field details the Trainer that trains the horse.  If this field has "UNKNOWN" as the trainer, this more than likely means that the trainer is not listed in our top rated trainer database rather than the literal meaning of the word. 

Confidence Factor (CFactor)

This field represents our Confidence Factor for each horse's chance of winning and should be used to determine how much overlay (or underlay) is required. For example, a horse we rate at $2.00 and has a low confidence factor should demand a large overlay, conversely a $2.00 rated horse with a high confidence factor should be considered as a strong chance of winning without regard to overlay. If we rate a horse at say $10 and it has a high confidence factor, then this horse could represent value if you can get a good overlay on it.  A horse we rate at $10 with a low Confidence Factor could be a good lay. HRT pricing and Confidence factors are different methods so you may see anomalies, this is because HRT prices consider the past 7 runs, whereas the Confidence Factor only considers recent runs (usually they both consider the same runs, but in some cases they may not especially when horses are not consistent in form). Use the Confidence Factor as a "second opinion" on our ratings! A suggestion is to consider horses with Confidence Factors of 80% or more for the win and include any Confidence Factor rated horse (40% or above) for your exotic multiples. You may be able to add additional value by considering the horse's distance ability, our overall risk factor under Easy Form and other factors like the number of past runs, first up etc. This field is less accurate for "Insufficient Form" races. Warning: A rating of 100% does not mean that the horse will definitely win (we wish) but means a horse has a strong chance of winning. We have found that, although the strike rates are high, the general public are aware of these horses and therefore are typically over-bet and eliminate any chance of long term profit - it may be a strategy to avoid them!

HRT PNTS

This field details our raw rating used to calculate the HRT price (HRT WIN and HRT PLC - refer below). The rating is not based on individual levels but on how each horse ranks in each EasyForm category. For example, a horse rated first in Class/Wgt will get the same points allocated to another horse rated first in Class/Wgt in another race, regardless of their Class/Wgt rating. We would expect that the superior rated horse would be ranked higher in more categories and get a better rating overall.  The important factor is not so much the rating itself (although a race with low ratings is a difficult race) but the gap between them. The larger the gap (ie 10%+) the more certain the selection is to perform well. For interest sake, the maximum rating to date is 290 held by two horses. Both won at $1.30 and $1.40.

HRT PLC and WIN

These fields use the "HRT PNTS" as a rating. We then calculate the percentage chance of "HRT PNTS" winning or placing (when taking into consideration all other horses in the same race). For example, if a horse with a certain "HRT PNTS" has a 50% chance of winning, we would rate it $2. Likewise for the place. The "HRT WIN" and "HRT PLC" reflect these dollar values. The yellow background just indicates it is the Top Rater.

Good Debut Horse (GDH)

Good Jockey, barrier and trainer. Usually the market picks up on this. We recommend that you only use this information to avoid the race, include in your exotic bets or bet on if it is at great odds (e.g. >10/1). If there are no SF/F & D runners in Best Speed/Wgt, then it has a good chance of winning. 

Form Guide - Markets Table

This table presents the current QTAB Tote and Fixed priced odds at time of display. It also presents the current Betfair Back and Lay Win and Place odds at time of display. A Dutch Calculator is also provided for Dutch betting between QTAB's fixed odds and Betfair Win and Place Back odds (although place Dutch betting is not normally focused on by most). The four links at the bottom of the page will direct you to the appropriate provider's page for the particular race. For example the Isabet.com link will take you directly to the betting page for this race.

Form Guide - Distance

Distance Data

This data is a little difficult to interpret. Each "." represents a distance from 800m to 3200m. A "<" symbol shows where the 1000m, 2000m and 3000m points are. The above example is for 1800m (rounded to the nearest 100m). To assist in identifying where today's race distance is, we put today's distance data in brackets e.g. "( )". The higher the number, the better the performance at today's distance. Numbers to the left mean the horse has performed at shorter distances. Numbers to the right mean the horse has performed at longer distances. The most important data is within 200m for short distance races, 400m for medium distance races (like the example) and 600m for long distance races. 

Days Last Run

Days since the horse's last run.  This information is important for horses coming back from a spell or are backing up quickly after a recent race. 

1st, 2nd Up

Performance of the horse for first up runs (after a spell) and second up runs (after a spell). The first number is the number of runs, the second, the number of wins.  

Distance 'Seasoned'

This data shows how well the horse is 'seasoned' to run at today's distance using official race data. If the data shows that a horse is 'seasoned' it should be a reasonable indicator to show that the horse will run out the distance. The rule is, the longer the distance, the more distance seasoning required. However horse training is not always official (e.g. at trackwork, barrier trials etc) so a horse can still be seasoned without any indicator here.

Form Guide - Jockey Trainer

RPOS/BP Bias     Range 0 to 100%   (100% best)

This data provides an alternative aspect to the typical barrier tables most punters check. Many punters may wrongly assume, as an example, that a wide barrier is a poor barrier, however, if the horse is a strong leading horse, it should quickly run to the front without much difficulty. A strong backmarker can drop to the back with no effort at all. Therefore the barrier position should be taken in consideration with the running style/strength of each horse. This data attempts to do this and represents it as a percentage. A percentage higher than 50% indicates a positive bias and less than 50% indicates a negative bias. A green background shows a strong positive bias, a red background a poor negative bias. Relying on this information alone many not pick winners, but this information should serve useful for people that need to find reasons to eliminate or consider their own selections.

TR LVL     Range 0 to 100%   (100% best)

This data uses our trainer rating. It lists all trainers (not just the top 5 as listed in the Easyform table) but as a percentage. It also shows the trainer rating for unraced horses (which is not listed in the Easyform table). To calculate our actual trainer rating, find the 100% rated horse trainer rating in the Easyform, then divide this number by each percentage listed i.e. If the 100% horse has a trainer rating of 26 in the easyform table, the horse rated at 86% would be 26/.86 = 30.

JOCK LVL     Range 0 to 100%   (100% best)

This data uses our jockey rating. It lists all jockeys (not just the top 5 as listed in the Easyform table) but as a percentage. It also shows the jockey rating for unraced horses (which is not listed in the Easyform table). To calculate our actual jockey rating, find the 100% rated horse jockey rating in the Easyform, then divide this number by each percentage listed i.e. If the 100% horse has a jockey rating of 10 in the easyform table, the horse rated at 75% would be 10/.75 = 13.

JOCK BONUS     Range 0 to 100%   (100% best)

This is a jockey, track, distance rating as a percentage. If the Jockey that performs best at a certain track and distance, will receive 100%. Poor jockeys or jockeys without data will be 0%. A green background shows a strong positive bias, a red background a poor negative bias. This data can be useful for identifying good performing jockeys with local or distance ability (other jockey tables do not take these parameters into consideration).

OVERALL SCORE     Range 0 to 100%   (100% best)

This is the total score for Running and Barrier bias, Trainer, Jockey, a jockey bonus, represented as a percentage. Any figure greater that 60% has a green background.

JOCK Rides

This is the Jockey's performance on the horse. (no. of rides on horse) : (wins on horse) - (places on horse) S: (samples in database) L3: (Rides in last 3 runs) (! = poor performance) (# = late jockey allocation or change). Look out for high strike rate jockeys (e.g. wins and places high for no. of rides) returning to the horse (e.g. L3: 0). Some interesting pointers are:- 1. When the jockey as ridden the horse last 3 starts (E is 3) but no wins or places recorded. 2. When the jockey has not ridden the horse for the last 3 starts (E is 0) but a lot of wins or places are recorded - e.g. a jockey is back on that performs well (this could work powerfully with the Jock Bonus above).

Form Guide - Easy Form (Part A)

Best Jockeys

Each jockey's rating is calculated on the number of city and/or country wins, places and the number of runs in the race state (e.g. NSW, VIC etc) today. Therefore a good jockey from VIC may not be rated as highly if riding in NSW, mainly because its experience may be less in a different state (as indicated statistically).  Ratings are calculated over 2 years and the tables are updated about twice a year. 

This table may list less than 5 jockeys or no jockeys at all. We have a cut off point on quality. This ensures we don't list mediocre jockeys that are the "best of a bad bunch". You can find all the jockey ratings under table B.

Sometimes you may find a horse rated in the "Best Jockeys" category without a jockey declared for the day. The reason why this occurs, is that we make an assumption that the same quality jockey will ride this horse as previously. This usually ends up being the case (and our market estimates are calculated on what should eventuate). However, you should make sure that a good jockey does end up riding the horse. We will endeavour to update our tables with the known jockey (and correct rating) when the information comes to hand.

The number next to the horse name is our jockey positioning by state.  A "(1)" indicates that the jockey riding the horse is, in our opinion, is the best jockey in the state.

The "+" next to the jockey name means that the jockey is having their ONLY ride today - a great indicator to check (especially if the Trainer is also a top 5 trainer). This is a late calculation. 

Best Trainers

Same principle as jockey ratings.

Best Class/Wgt I

This section is a variation of the "Winning More" class system created by the late and legendary DON SCOTT. This is a complex system in itself and many people just follow this type of information.  The DON SCOTT class rating* is provided in brackets ie (65) meaning a class rating of 65.  Look for 5-10kg gaps between runners indicating a truly classy horse when compared to the rest of the field.   This category provides an in depth analysis of class and the affects of class and weight changes on a horse. We recommend that you review DON SCOTT's book to understand his principles. "Winning More" is published by Horwitz Grahame Pty Ltd ISBN 0 7255 2115 5 and is a brilliant class determination method.  It does not consider other variations such as race times and running pattern, which we include in our other categories  to provide a complete service. 

This class system (Version I) relies on certain "Form Patterns"  to determine a horse's "baserun". We do not always use the horse's last race, as the "baserun" used depends on the form pattern of its past recent races. Because horses can have reasons for poor runs, we can check as far back as 7 runs. 

* We exclude jockey ratings in this category because we use the Best Jockey category instead.  

Best Pace/Wgt

This section works on the horse's overall race times at similar distances and average weights. We analyse its current preparation and a similar period last preparation.  The data is then compared to today's weight.  Additional codes include; fast-codes (sf=super fast, f=fast) which indicates faster than average runners, and a distance-code (d) which indicates if a horse has run at this distance.  If there are a lot of debut horses in the race and there are no horses in this section that has a fast-code, it is best to avoid the race as a debut horse has a better chance of winning over average speed horses.  A "sf" fast-code at the "d" distance code, indicates a powerful combination. However "sf" without "d" indicates a risky position - it may over-race and/or not run the distance. We also include a "^" code indicating when a horse has not been "seasoned" for the distance in the current preparation. This does not mean the horse is not a winning chance, just some additional risk so you may wish to avoid the race.

The value in brackets for each horse indicates the delta in times compared to the top rater.  Of course the top rater will always be (.0). More credit should be given to horses that have the "d" flag as this indicates a more accurate time.        

Look for the "light and fast" section to see how the horse fairs there also. 

Speed is a difficult rating to use. It's rating can be very impressive or misleading. For example, horses that win by large margins more than likely canter over the line to preserve fitness. Others sometimes are not pace setters or leaders and so their times are set by others that lead in their races. 

Forward Runners

In a race with a lot of form, this category typically indicates the top leaders of the race to set the pace. The probability we post for the horse's chance of winning a race usually relies on these horses actually running these positions. So during the race, check the front markers and if we have these close to actuals, then the odds should fall true. A race may not run to our predictions because of varying racing conditions, a jockey's change of plan or even a horse fitness to name a few. In this case, luck will play its part. 

The '~' code indicates horses with fast first sectional times. You can use this information to determine whether a horse will get across from a wide barrier or checking any leader conflict early in the race. For example, a front runner (f) on the outer barrier of a fast pace runner (p~) may both race too hard early. It is preferred that the front runner have the fast sectionals (f~) or at least a closer barrier to the rail over the p~ horse. If confused, skip the race. 

This category is also useful for race-days when leaders win most races, for whatever reason they do, it is useful to know the next leaders of the next race!

To determine which tracks and distances suit and disadvantage front runners click on front runner stats.

Best At Track

A category on the track strike rate. A '+' indicates that the horse performs better at this track than any other track. The indicator is not dependent on the track strike rate, so a horse can have the '+' symbol without being a top track rater. Ideally a horse should have the best track strike rate and a '+' indicator. We provide a second '+' indicator for horses that are truly biased to the track - Watch for these. 

The "?" indicator means that the runs on the track are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any judgement. The (###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and fractions for 2nd and 3rd. Since decimals are rounded, points may be slightly exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can only be achieved if they were all wins.

There is a special value of (0) which indicates the horses with some (2 races) track experience, but with no points. 

Best At Distance

A basic category on distance success. A range of 0-3 pluses ('+') are used to indicate how good the top distance raters are. We also include a "^" code indicating when a horse has not been "seasoned" for the distance in the current preparation. This does not mean the horse is not a winning chance, just some additional risk so you may wish to avoid the race. 

The "?" indicator means that the runs at the distance are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any judgement. The (###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and fractions for 2nd and 3rd.  Since decimals are rounded, points may be slightly exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can only be achieved if they were all wins.

Good Margin Last Start

This section details the horses that won a race last start irrespective of the class or time of the race. Therefore this field should be analysed with the class and time categories provided, but in some cases, horses may be moving up in grade or cantering to the line, so class & speed are not always conclusive. 

Tenacity

The horse's tenacity or want to win, similar to win strike rate, but not related to winning 'per se' so also applies to maiden races. Not class specific so should be read in conjunction with our class field for a more meaningful result.

Lowest Risk

This section looks at almost 50 conditions to determine the risk of a horse in a race. Some examples include distance, jockey and track experience. This category indicates the lowest risk horse in the race, NOT a low risk horse. The number next to the horse name is our risk rating.  A (1) indicates that the risk is very low. This field is a great indicator and should be checked in your studies. Carefully scrutinize horses that have a risk factor greater than 20. Horses lower than 30 points are listed. 

Best Win Strike

A basic category on WIN success. Maiden races will have this section empty. WE DO NOT USE THIS CATEGORY IN OUR CALCULATIONS. Win Strike Rate is a common parameter used by the public and our system is designed to follow value around public opinion. If a horse is a good overlay and also has a high rating here, you are getting great value.

The number next to the horse name is the strike rate in percent.

Best Place Strike

A basic category on PLACE success. WE DO NOT USE THIS CATEGORY IN OUR CALCULATIONS. Place Strike Rate is a common parameter used by the public and our system is designed to follow value around public opinion. If a horse is a good overlay and also has a high rating here, you are getting great value.

The number next to the horse name is the strike rate in percent.

Good Positioning

The top raters of the Rpos table (refer above). We do not present "-1" delta when there is only one run. High ratings here must make the horse worthwhile considering. 

Barrier Trail Well

Usually for horses returning from a spell. This is something that should be in our main calculations but is usually difficult to quantify. If a horse is in this category and is in the betting - give it some thought and bear in mind that our calculations exclude this knowledge. We will rarely include a '#' symbol next to the horses in this category. This means that this horse typically runs well first up. So if it is training well and runs well first up... well you be the judge. 

Light & Fast

Uses Best Speed/Wgt ratings but carefully looks at the weight shift to determine if at a true advantage today. Seriously give these horses a consideration.

Form Guide - Easy Form (Part B)

Strong Finisher

Horses that run middle to back field and finish strongly irrespective of class and speed. The positioning, final sectionals and the length of the straight are all taken into consideration. This is extremely useful for horses moving quickly up in class, because the class is unclear and the times are set by lower class pace setters.  

Jockey Return

This is an interesting category where we believe a jockey is returning to horse to run it at its best ability today. Watch (and be prepared) for dramatic changes in betting. 

Best At Going

The "?" indicator means that the runs at the going are 2 runs or less, so the sample may be a little low to make any judgement. The (###) value provides a 'point system' strike rate with one point for 1st and fractions for 2nd and 3rd.  Since decimals are rounded, points may be slightly exaggerated for small samples. A ( 100) means 100% strike rate and can only be achieved if they were all wins.

Average Prize Money

We average the prize money of recent runs (this is not the standard Average Prize Money used on some TAB forms), of each horse with an importance placed on the most recent races.  More often than not, winners are previous prize money winners, so make sure your methods check this category.  The category alone can sometimes be misleading so also include the Tenacity and Best Class/Wgt categorie as a cross check. Horses that have prize money winnings without Tenacity or Best Class/Wgt may mean an out of class (or too heavy) or inconsistent winner. Horses that are in Tenacity but without Prize Money may not be a negative factor. Horses in this scenario may mean that they are just missing or receiving small prize money winnings. 

Best Class/Wgt II

Version II uses a totally different perspective to version I (refer above) by using a simple Form Pattern checker on recent runs only (or first run run/s if running after a spell). This allows you to get a quick gauge of the horse's recent ability.  It does not take into consideration at what distances etc so use with some caution. We have not focused on this field but have seen this field select many longshot winners so maybe worthwhile monitoring for long shots or checking the other categories to ensure that the horse can run the distance etc. 

D/Seasoned

Ranking of best horses distance 'seasoned' to run at today's distance using official race data. It should be a reasonable indicator that the horse will run out the distance. The rule is, the longer the distance, the more distance seasoning required. However horse training is not always official (e.g. at trackwork, barrier trials etc) so a horse can still be seasoned without any indicator here. 

1st Half Sectional

Horses (in order) that will run the first sectional quickly. The blue arrow pointing upwards means that the horse may improve from this position. A red arrow pointing downwards means that the horse may struggle maintaining this position.

2ndt Half Sectional

Horses (in order) that will run the last sectional quickly. The blue arrow pointing upwards means that the horse may improve from this position. A red arrow pointing downwards means that the horse may struggle maintaining this position.

Heavy

DISADVANTAGE FIELD: This rating penalises horses that are heavy in weight and up in weight from previous starts (constantly heavy horses are not penalised).  Horses that run at the back of the field and are slow down the straight are indicated with an exclamation mark "(!)". these horses should be avoided unless the horse is a quality horse with good natural speed and turn-of-foot. This category is strongly used in our penalty system to set the market price. Refer to the section above "Heavy Weight Marker/s" for more details on the Exclamation Mark system.

Wide/Inconvenienced 

DISADVANTAGE FIELD: Horses in this category may run wide or may be inconvenienced in this race. Typically these horses are slow to jump and have a wide barrier (relative to the other horses in a similar running position), hence the likelihood to run wide or be inconvenienced by the jockey sending the horse forward or backward in the field. This information is useful if you wish to lay a horse and this field adds further confidence (do not use solely) or if you want to remove some risk from your larger bets (ie avoid bet on horses that may be inconvenienced).  Since the running of the race can vary greatly, this category is not 100% accurate, however, tends to fall true in larger field races and where the pace is genuine. It is also important to note that horses can win running wide (especially if the track conditions suit) and some horses may find the assumed "inconvenienced" position actually convenient (ie mid field runner up front may find that it's a strong front runner). The HRT prices reflect some risk component in the price.

Form Guide - Speed Map

The "Leader" horse indicates where the Front (F) running horse should be in a normal pace race (distance taken into consideration). If the Front runner is significantly to the left of the "Leader", then this may mean a slower pace race and could advantage the front runners. The Front runner significantly to the right of the "Leader" may advantage the backmarkers (especially if other horses are to the right of the "Leader" horse as well). Horses out wide could also be disadvantaged.

Form Guide - Quinella and Exacta Tables

Suggested Quinella and Exacta overlays, however, since exotics are not normally fixed price and most TABS do not provide pre-start exotic tote odds, these tables are not too useful.

Testimonials

"Just a quick email to let you know that I had a great day's betting today [17.2.05] with 2 big winners; 'Record Score' ($24.20) & 'Willowview' ($22.40).  Your odds were displayed at $3.30 & $4.70 so these were terrific overlays; I only wished I had now backed them more than the $20 I placed!  Oh well, can't really complain considering I did make a nice $900 profit for 6 mins work!! Please keep up the fantastic work and I look forward to being a member for many races (and years) to come!"
Phill O, Melbourne, VIC Australia Membership no. 5721

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your methods, I am making nice returns at a rate of 25% and an average dividend of $5.85. Thankyou for all help thus far and excellent service you provide."
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"Thank you for the work you are putting into your site. All other sites on the net which also put forward a number of selections per race and brag how good they are when one of the selections win, have never in my experience made long term profits. You can not bet on all their selections, for over the long term you will certainly loose your money. I admit that I have over the years while searching for the holy grail of a winning formula. The biggest problem has been which selection do you place your money on. Well the answer comes through loud and clear with your selections, the one with the greater value. For the first time in years I am finally coming out in front with my betting strategies along with your selections. And for anyone reading this note, sign up, as there is no over pricing, the information is top rate and if you’re astute enough to use that information well, you will make a profit over the long term. " 
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"Having been a newcomer to horse racing I have been conservative in my approach.   I have been very impressed with the tips posted each day from horse racing tips and have used them in conjunction with my own selections with very good results.   I have also being following your tips for quinellas and trifectas with excellent results.   I do refine the selection criteria for each race.   The results are based on using the first four horses selected and putting a $1 bet (total $24), the results are very good (about $3000 profit [so far] - 30% success rate)... Again your service is the best on the net."
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'About Us' at Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips is an internet based service providing horse racing services since January 2002 and managed by an Australian business Trust. Horse Racing Tips provides quality horse racing information and tips for Australian and New Zealand horse racing. We summarise the form in an easy to read format and provide our recommended selections each race with our unique "Confidence factor" to further assist in determining value. Our service is ideal for Backing and Laying for the win & place, quinella and exacta betting. We provide real-time market prices to allow you to find value quickly through various wagering sources. Our additional quality tips provide low volume, high performance selections. 100% satisfaction guarantee for new members and free tips are offered to all registered users. 

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